A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
