Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
